Difference between revisions of "Danon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England"
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Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from: | Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from: | ||
| − | http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region. | + | http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region<ref>Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020. {{doi|https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566}}</ref>. |
| − | Model | + | Total of 8,570 regions (or wards) were introduced. |
| + | |||
| + | Model parameters were randomly distributed according to experimental data acquired for Wuhan<ref>Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel oronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020</ref>: | ||
| + | {| class="wikitable" | ||
| + | !Parameter!!Distribution | ||
| + | |- style="background-color: Lavender" | ||
| + | |Incubation period | ||
| + | |lognorm(meanlog=log(5.2),sdlog=0.35) | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | |Reproduction number | ||
| + | |gamma(scale=2.2/100,shape=100) | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | |Infectious period | ||
| + | |uniform(2, 3) | ||
| + | |} | ||
| + | |||
| + | Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate. | ||
| + | |||
| + | Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming | ||
biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June. | biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June. | ||
| + | Model was implemented using C programming language and is available at [http://github.com/ldanon/MetaWards github]. | ||
==References== | ==References== | ||
<references/> | <references/> | ||
Revision as of 12:29, 17 April 2020
Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model[1] to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region[2].
Total of 8,570 regions (or wards) were introduced.
Model parameters were randomly distributed according to experimental data acquired for Wuhan[3]:
| Parameter | Distribution |
|---|---|
| Incubation period | lognorm(meanlog=log(5.2),sdlog=0.35) |
| Reproduction number | gamma(scale=2.2/100,shape=100) |
| Infectious period | uniform(2, 3) |
Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate.
Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.
Model was implemented using C programming language and is available at github.
References
- ↑ Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553
- ↑ Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566
- ↑ Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel oronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020
