Danon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England - Revision history

Axec@dote.ru at 05:39, 17 April 2020

2020-04-17T05:39:01Z

Axec@dote.ru at 05:31, 17 April 2020

2020-04-17T05:31:40Z

Axec@dote.ru at 05:29, 17 April 2020

2020-04-17T05:29:18Z

Axec@dote.ru at 05:17, 17 April 2020

2020-04-17T05:17:50Z

Axec@dote.ru: Axec@dote.ru moved page Dannon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England to Danon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England

2020-04-17T05:14:57Z

Axec@dote.ru moved page Dannon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England to Danon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England

Axec@dote.ru at 05:14, 17 April 2020

2020-04-17T05:14:14Z

Axec@dote.ru: Created page with "Model scheme Model scheme Authors use spatial metapopulatio..."

2020-04-17T05:13:31Z

Created page with "Model scheme Model scheme Authors use spatial metapopulatio..."

New page

[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_view.png|thumb|Model scheme]]

[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Model scheme]]

Authors use spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:
http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region.

Model predicts<ref>Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020. {{doi|https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566}}</ref> that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming
biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.

==References==
<references/>

@@ Line 2: / Line 2: @@
 [[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Simulation results]]
 Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:
@@ Line 22: / Line 24: @@
 |}
-Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate.
+Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate, namely it is considered to be lower in summer. Seasonality is shown to have large impact on epidemic timing.
 Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.

@@ Line 24: / Line 24: @@
 Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate.
-Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming
+Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.
 biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.
 Model was implemented using C programming language and is available at [http://github.com/ldanon/MetaWards github].

@@ Line 3: / Line 3: @@
 [[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Simulation results]]
-Authors use spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:
+Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:
 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region.

@@ Line 4: / Line 4: @@
 Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:
-http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region.
+http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region<ref>Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020. {{doi|https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566}}</ref>.
-Model predicts<ref>Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020. {{doi|https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566}}</ref> that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming
+Total of 8,570 regions (or wards) were introduced.
 biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.
 ==References==
 <references/>

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_view.png|thumb|Model scheme]]
+[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_view.png|thumb|SEIR model scheme]]
-[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Model scheme]]
+[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Simulation results]]
 Authors use spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from: