Danon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England

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Model scheme
Model scheme

Authors use spatial metapopulation model[1] to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region.

Model predicts[2] that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.


  1. Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553
  2. Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566
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