http://wiki.biouml.org/index.php?title=Danon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England&feed=atom&action=historyDanon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England - Revision history2024-03-29T14:21:59ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.20.3http://wiki.biouml.org/index.php?title=Danon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England&diff=8471&oldid=prevAxec@dote.ru at 05:39, 17 April 20202020-04-17T05:39:01Z<p></p>
<table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'>
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">Revision as of 05:39, 17 April 2020</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 2:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 2:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Simulation results]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Simulation results]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_seasonal_results.png|thumb|Seasonal changes]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 22:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 24:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>|}</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>|}</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, namely it is considered to be lower in summer</ins>. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Seasonality is shown to have large impact on epidemic timing.  </ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.</div></td></tr>
</table>Axec@dote.ruhttp://wiki.biouml.org/index.php?title=Danon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England&diff=8469&oldid=prevAxec@dote.ru at 05:31, 17 April 20202020-04-17T05:31:40Z<p></p>
<table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'>
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">Revision as of 05:31, 17 April 2020</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 24:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 24:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Model predicts that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">One limitation of the model is that it does not consider mortality</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Model was implemented using C programming language and is available at [http://github.com/ldanon/MetaWards github].</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Model was implemented using C programming language and is available at [http://github.com/ldanon/MetaWards github].</div></td></tr>
</table>Axec@dote.ruhttp://wiki.biouml.org/index.php?title=Danon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England&diff=8468&oldid=prevAxec@dote.ru at 05:29, 17 April 20202020-04-17T05:29:18Z<p></p>
<table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'>
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">Revision as of 05:29, 17 April 2020</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 4:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 4:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Authors used preexisted spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><ref>Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020. {{doi|https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566}}</ref></ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Model <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">predicts</del><ref><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Danon </del>L<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">.</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Brooks-Pollock E.</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Bailey M</del>., <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Keeling M. A spatial model </del>of <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020</del>. {<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">{doi</del>|<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">https</del>:<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">//doi</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">org/10</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">1101/2020</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">02.12.20022566}}<</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">ref> </del>that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Total of 8,570 regions (or wards) were introduced.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Model <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">parameters were randomly distributed according to experimental data acquired for Wuhan</ins><ref><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou </ins>L, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Tong Y</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">et al</ins>. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China</ins>, of <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Novel  oronavirus–Infected Pneumonia</ins>. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">N Engl J Med. 2020</ref>:</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>{| <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">class="wikitable" </ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">!Parameter!!Distribution</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|- style="background-color</ins>: <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Lavender"</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|Incubation period</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|lognorm(meanlog=log(5</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">2),sdlog=0</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">35)</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|-</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|Reproduction number</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|gamma(scale=2</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">2</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">100,shape=100)</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|-</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|Infectious period</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|uniform(2, 3)</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|}</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Seasonal changes in epidemic spread are also investigated by using varying transmission rate.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Model predicts </ins>that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Model was implemented using C programming language and is available at [http://github.com/ldanon/MetaWards github].</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>==References==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>==References==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><references/></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><references/></div></td></tr>
</table>Axec@dote.ruhttp://wiki.biouml.org/index.php?title=Danon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England&diff=8467&oldid=prevAxec@dote.ru at 05:17, 17 April 20202020-04-17T05:17:50Z<p></p>
<table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'>
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">Revision as of 05:17, 17 April 2020</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 3:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 3:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Simulation results]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Simulation results]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Authors <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">use </del>spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Authors <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">used preexisted </ins>spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
</table>Axec@dote.ruhttp://wiki.biouml.org/index.php?title=Danon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England&diff=8463&oldid=prevAxec@dote.ru: Axec@dote.ru moved page Dannon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England to Danon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England2020-04-17T05:14:57Z<p>Axec@dote.ru moved page <a href="/index.php/Dannon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England" class="mw-redirect" title="Dannon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England">Dannon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England</a> to <a href="/index.php/Danon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England" title="Danon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England">Danon et al. Covid-19 transmission in England</a></p>
<table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'>
<tr style='vertical-align: top;'>
<td colspan='1' style="background-color: white; color:black;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='1' style="background-color: white; color:black;">Revision as of 05:14, 17 April 2020</td>
</tr></table>Axec@dote.ruhttp://wiki.biouml.org/index.php?title=Danon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England&diff=8462&oldid=prevAxec@dote.ru at 05:14, 17 April 20202020-04-17T05:14:14Z<p></p>
<table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'>
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">Revision as of 05:14, 17 April 2020</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 1:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 1:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_view.png|thumb|<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Model </del>scheme]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_view.png|thumb|<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">SEIR model </ins>scheme]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Model scheme</del>]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Simulation results</ins>]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Authors use spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Authors use spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:</div></td></tr>
</table>Axec@dote.ruhttp://wiki.biouml.org/index.php?title=Danon_et_al._Covid-19_transmission_in_England&diff=8461&oldid=prevAxec@dote.ru: Created page with "Model scheme Model scheme Authors use spatial metapopulatio..."2020-04-17T05:13:31Z<p>Created page with "<a href="/index.php/File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_view.png" title="File:Danon et al Covid19 model view.png">Model scheme</a> <a href="/index.php/File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png" title="File:Danon et al Covid19 model simulation results.png">Model scheme</a> Authors use spatial metapopulatio..."</p>
<p><b>New page</b></p><div>[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_view.png|thumb|Model scheme]]<br />
<br />
[[File:Danon_et_al_Covid19_model_simulation_results.png|thumb|Model scheme]]<br />
<br />
Authors use spatial metapopulation model<ref>Danon L, House T, Keeling M. The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics [Internet]. 2009; Available from:<br />
http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436509000553</ref> to describe population movement between regions in England and Whales and standard SEIR model to describe Covid-19 spread in each particular region.<br />
<br />
Model predicts<ref>Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing // medRxiv preprint 2020. {{doi|https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566}}</ref> that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming<br />
biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, authors predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.<br />
<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
<references/></div>Axec@dote.ru